Déjà vu – 2011 Mid Season Review

Melbourne still has a long way to go before premiership glory. Much depends on Bailey's game plan and Scully's future.

By all expectations, 2010 was a good year for Melbourne. Eight and a half wins. A trio of Rising Stars. A couple of Australian representatives. And no debt.

It was all going to plan.

Yet the story has continued in 2011. The Demons have taken off where they left the previous season, continuing their erratic form line with a batch of youthful constituents still finding their feet. With four and a half wins to date, eight to nine wins again looms as a likely outcome.

That wasn’t part of the script.

2010 was supposed to have finished six months ago. As “good” as the year was, no one asked for an encore. The growing pains of “development”, the symptoms Demon fans have experienced for the last four – if not the last fourty-six – years, are still upon us. It’s not ideal, but the show must go on.

It’s either been all-or-nothing in 2011, with colossal wins over Essendon, Adelaide, and Gold Coast negated by embarrassments against (hold your breathe) Hawthorn, West Coast, North Melbourne, Carlton, and most recently Collingwood. A nondescript draw against Sydney, a fortunate victory over Brisbane, and an honourable loss to St Kilda have rounded out the half-year’s other festivities.

Like last year, there’s been something to smile about, but not enough to indicate its showtime. Yet.

When a season like this comes along – in which great expectations are met with overwhelming disappointment – it’s a kneejerk reaction to point at the injury list. Injuries, however, have been irrelevant.

The current casualty list may feature some significant names; the month-long absence of Mark Jamar, and the season-long loss of Jack Grimes have exposed significant holes in Melbourne’s structure. But one must remember that all teams suffer pain; it’s an element of the AFL paradigm that will never fade. That’s right; players will continue to get hurt in this dog-eat-dog game, even when the Dees mount their next premiership challenge.

Moreover, Melbourne’s two most humiliating defeats came when the coaching staff had a full list to pick from. Round 2’s deplorable collapse against Hawthorn was painful to watch, as was the Round 6 shellacking at Subiaco. Against the Eagles, the Demons lost the inside 50 count by 29; against the Hawks, it was a whopping 40. That’s hardly excusable, even with a depleted line-up; the reality is, though, that Tom Scully was the Dees’ only notable man on the sidelines.

The four-quarter team performances against Essendon and Adelaide, however, were indicative of this team’s potential. They were also evidence that Dean Bailey’s game plan is not as bad as we think.

Holding back the reliability of his strategy, however, have been two fundamental pillars. And Melbourne won’t win games unless they’re both dealt with.

Number one is movement. It may not seem obvious on television, but Melbourne players are as stagnant as the Queen’s guards. How many times have we seen Colin Garland at full back, searching for options, only to play on and bomb the ball into a contest? How many times have we seen Jack Watts find the ball on the wing, and look up to see no men ahead of him? And how many times have we seen Liam Jurrah fail to attempt a single lead? I’m no expert, but the primary rule of run-and-carry football is that you run.

Number two is skill; there is little use in a game plan when your leading ball-getters can’t hit targets. I’m going to pick on two players here, Nathan Jones and Clint Bartram. Don’t get me wrong, Jones has showed off some glorious footwork this year, particularly going inside 50. In saying that, you wouldn’t want him lining up after the siren, or representing you on Lou’s Handball; his skills are simply too erratic. Bartram is in the same camp. For all his hard work in the defensive half, he will never be an elite kick.

The flipside is that both Jones and Bartram are solid players, probably enjoying their best seasons to date. In fact, neither would look out of place in a team like Collingwood or Geelong where the run-and-carry mantra is pulled off with precision. Hell, look at Simon Buckley this year. Shafted from Melbourne at the close of ‘09 for his kicking deficiencies, the hard-running winger now finds himself in Collingwood’s best 22. One may attribute his unlikely rise to persistence. I’m inclined to say his teammates have something to do with it.

As evident by Monday’s result, the Demons are still a fair distance from their Cat and Magpie counterparts. Yet with Scully (touch-wood), Jack Trengove, Jordie McKenzie and Jordan Gysberts rotating through the centre, the Dees potentially have the nucleus of a potent midfield. Scully is Selwood/Thomas, Trengove is Bartel/Swan, McKenzie is Ling/Ball, and Gysberts is Corey/Pendlebury. Monday was just the third time the quartet had played with one another; only time and Kevin Sheedy’s cash will tell whether this youthful engine room becomes Melbourne’s awesome foursome.

The collective lack of experience of this unit, however, brings to attention a key consideration; Melbourne is still young. As much as we don’t want 2011 to be another development year, that’s the reality. Sam Blease, a speedy first-round draft pick, has played zero games. James Strauss, picked up two places later, has played four. Likewise, youngsters such as Rohan Bail, Luke Tapscott, Addam Maric, Max Gawn, and Jeremy Howe were recruited with Melbourne’s next premiership in mind. Not one of them has reached twenty appearances.

It is with this optimistic frame of mind that an analysis should take place.

With a few notable exceptions, most Demons have shown improvement in 2011, a key performance indicator often forgotten in dark times.

Watts is advancing with every game, creating play across half-back and releasing the odd firework up front. A four-goal game before the season’s end is not beyond him, and will do the young man a world of confidence.

Fellow teens Bail and Tapscott – should they keep their bodies right – could be ten year players. Bail’s ability to both find the ball and nullify his opponent was invaluable before injury struck. Tapscott’s physical presence alone is mouth-watering; he will be a dangerous weapon regardless of where the coaches choose to settle him.

Of the senior players, Colin Sylvia is halfway towards his first best and fairest award, with yet another improved year. Brent Moloney, meanwhile, could walk home with a Brownlow if he recaptures the form that pushed Melbourne into early top eight contention.

The biggest revelation, though, has been Stefan Martin. Two years ago, I was full of praise for the big man, suggesting that “he [had] all the hallmarks of a dominant AFL footballer – height, strength, speed and skill”. I admittedly lost faith in the big man midway through last season, but Martin has since delivered up to his promise with some outstanding work in the centre. Martin’s biggest asset is his work rate after the ball has gone to ground, exemplified by some stunning clearance work. He hasn’t yet disposed Jamar of his number one mantle, but this duo may soon become one of the league’s most intimidating combinations. Such a predicament would have sounded implausible three months ago. Three years ago, it would have seemed impossible.

As Melbourne supporters, it’s easy to lament about Bailey and his lack of direction. Moreover, we seem to take pride in pointing out Brad Green’s wayward set shots, Aaron Davey’s horror tagger tales, Cale Morton’s wasted talent, Jamie Bennell’s lack of hardness, Matthew Warnock’s dropped mark, or Lynden Dunn’s moustache.

Each of these players and their respective weaknesses are indeed worthy of in-depth critique. Yet each of these players has been better. Each of them will be better. They simply must.

Regardless of pre-season expectations, this year’s results have been very disappointing. No team likes to be savaged by their cross-town arch-rivals. No team likes to be pushed aside by bottom eight cellar-dwellers. No team likes to run around for 120 minutes without incurring a bruise.

Thankfully, the play hasn’t started just yet; this is still the dress rehearsal.

We’re obviously not ready yet, so let’s be patient with our mistakes. Before we close the curtain, let’s turn back the clock.

This year we’ve going to party like its 2010. It’s simply too painful otherwise.